On February 28, 2026, the US informally declared war on Iran, also referred to as “Operation Epic Fury,” with attacks via airstrike. According to President Trump, he felt that Iran was very close to completing the development of a nuclear bomb, and the threat needed to be neutralized as the reason behind the attack. In addition to the loss of lives on both sides of the conflict and destabilization across the region, another key result was the rise in oil prices worldwide.
Why are oil prices impacted? Iran currently controls 12% of the world’s oil reserves. In response to US attacks, they immediately took control of the Strait of Hormuz and prevented ships from crossing. The Strait of Hormuz is a waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil supply travels to be distributed globally. On a typical day, around 100-135 oil tankers pass through the Strait. Following the attack, Iran allowed only one to four tankers to go through each day – a 95% decrease. This causes a major reduction in oil exports from the area and drives up the price of oil prices due to scarcityto rise.
Throughout the month of March, Trump threatened Iran with various ultimatums to open the Strait or suffer complete destruction. To date, this has not yet occurred. However, since April 12, Trump has implemented a U.S. naval blockade in the Strait. Each time threats occur and retaliation increases, gas prices in the US continue to skyrocket, currently over $4 a gallon, and are expected to get worse as the conflict persists.
It’s not just the price at the pump that is affected by this supply shortage. Oil is in nearly every product, including all plastics, such as toys, furniture, packaging materials, appliances, and technological devices. Any petroleum-based product is at risk of inflation, including synthetic rubber in tires, fertilizer and pesticides, aluminum, paint, clothing, and much more. Due to higher fertilizer and diesel prices, farmers have to pay more and raise crop prices to make a profit. Rising crop prices,This, along with increased packaging and shipping costs, will raise food prices in the US and around the globe.
A key campaign promise of President Trump was to immediately lower inflation and the cost of food and goods, and to “lower gas prices by $2 and cut energy costs by 50%.” Since taking office, the price of goods has continued to rise., bBy March 2026, inflation was at 3.3%, though earlier in the year it was 2.4%, according to CNN. With the conflict with Iran, even greater inflation can be expected as oil exports are largely blocked.
Ceasefire is planning to end the week of April 19th, while there have been discussions of peace plans, Iran has so far denied all plans and agreements. Iran had proposed a 10-point proposal, asking for the removal of U.S. sanctions and a guarantee of no future attacks. Though the U.S. continues to try to come to a resolution with Iran, and the Strait is temporarily open, things remain unclear. As of now, the U.S. has recently taken custody of an Iranian sShip in the Strait, as part of the U.S.’s naval blockade, according to the BBC, possibly urging for more conflict. Tensions and prices around the globe are rising, but the question is: how high will they go? And how soon?
